Space Industry’s Meteoric Rise and the Escalating Space Debris Challenge

A follow-up to my 2018 article on space junk

In 2018, I wrote about the burgeoning space industry, projected to grow from $350 billion to $3 trillion by 2030*. Today, updated projections and industry trends paint an even more dynamic picture, but one thing remains constant: the challenge posed by space debris.

*I misquoted this stat. It should be "$2.7 trillion in 30 years" (so 2047)

The Industry Then and Now

In 2018, the space industry was on an upswing, fueled by falling launch costs and increased private sector participation. Recent data shows the industry’s value has soared to $570 billion in 2023, growing at a 7.4% annual rate since 2022, and is now projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 (Space Foundation & McKinsey) which was far faster than projected.

This growth is driven by several factors I highlighted in 2018:

1. Mega-Constellations: Companies like SpaceX and Amazon are deploying thousands of satellites to provide global connectivity, adding urgency to orbital sustainability.

2. Expanding Government Budgets: More nations are investing heavily in space exploration and defense.

3. Private Sector Innovation: Startups are flourishing in areas like satellite communications, data analytics, and now, orbital debris removal.

Space Junk: A Problem That’s Only Grown Worse

In 2018, I pointed out that unchecked debris could make space impassable, threatening the industry’s future. Today, the problem has intensified:

• 36,860 tracked objects are in orbit, with millions of smaller, untrackable fragments creating additional risk (ESA DISCOS).

• Record satellite launches in 2023 added 2,664 objects to orbit, up from fewer than 500 annually a decade ago (Our World in Data).

• The International Space Station performed its 39th collision avoidance maneuver in November 2024 (Live Science).

Despite efforts like improved satellite decommissioning and collision tracking, debris continues to accumulate at an alarming rate.

Solutions Gaining Traction

Back in 2018, I emphasized active debris removal (ADR) as a critical solution. Since then, advancements have been made:

• Astroscale, which I highlighted, remains a leader, offering retrieval systems to deorbit defunct satellites.

• The European Space Agency is collaborating with private players like SpaceX through the Zero Debris charter, aiming to eliminate new orbital debris by 2030 (Reuters).

• Governments are introducing stricter regulations on satellite end-of-life protocols.

However, these measures remain limited by economics. The costs of developing and deploying ADR technologies are still high, and compliance relies on the goodwill of operators.

The Way Forward

As I wrote in 2018, the space industry’s future hinges on addressing space junk. Without sustainable orbital management, the risks of cascading collisions will only grow. For investors and innovators, this presents both a challenge and a massive opportunity.

• The Challenge: Ensuring the space economy remains viable while managing exponential growth in satellite deployments.

• The Opportunity: Capitalizing on emerging technologies and startups dedicated to orbital sustainability.

Key Takeaway: The space industry’s trajectory toward a $1.8 trillion valuation is looming, but space junk remains a critical hurdle. The solutions I discussed in 2018—active debris removal and stricter regulations—are now more urgent than ever. Innovators and investors who tackle this challenge stand to reap significant rewards.